Serena Williams may be retiring, but American tennis is having a moment at the 2022 US Open. Not only did Frances Tiafoe upset Rafa Nadal on Monday to reach the quarterfinals, but Coco Gauff is just one win away from her first trip to the final four in Queens, as well.
Gauff meets the red-hot Caroline Garcia on Tuesday night, with the match slated for a 7:00 p.m. start on ESPN. The match is essentially lined as a pick’em, which makes sense considering the form of both players and also the circumstances of the contest, which is basically a Coco Gauff home-game. The Arthur Ashe crowd will be behind the 18-year-old American from the first point of the match.
And Gauff will need every bit of that backing, as there is no hotter player on either side of the draw than Garcia right now. She’s won 12 straight matches, 11 consecutive sets and has gone five matches on the bounce without losing more than six games. Garcia’s 39-15, overall, this season and 18-9 on hard courts.
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Garcia looked particularly dominant in her past two matches, taking out former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu, 6-3, 6-2, and then Alison Riske, 6-4, 6-1. Garcia’s first serve was a true weapon against Riske, as she won 75% of her first-serve points and wasn’t broken once.
That’s been the trend with Garcia in this tournament, as she’s only been broken twice all tournament and has faced just eight break points.
She will face her stiffest test of the tournament on Tuesday, though, as Coco Gauff’s defensive form looks to be on par with Garcia’s powerful offensive game.
Gauff comes into Tuesday night off an impressive win over Shuai Zheng, in which she broke the 33-year-old five time and won 46% of the points while Zheng was serving.
While she was terrific against the serve, Gauff did struggle to make hay when she started the point, winning only 62% of points on her first serve and less than 50% on her second serve. Her struggles on second serve have been apparent all tournament.
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That said, everything else seems to be clicking for Gauff at the moment and her ability to handle pace and stay in points long enough to turn them around should set her up for success against Garcia.
Garcia has had her way with basically every opponent she’s faced over the last month, but the crowd and Gauff’s defensive abilities will likely mean she faces some choppy waters for the first time in a long time. Gauff has shown in her past two matches (Madison Keys, Zheng) she’s able to handle power and although Garcia’s form is definitely frightening, the American’s counter-punching skills should allow her to keep pace with the in-form Frenchwoman.
This match is close to a coin flip, but Gauff has some value as a slight underdog and is a good live-betting option if Garcia races out to an early lead, as well.
The Bet: Coco Gauff -105 (BetMGM)