Our MLB betting expert offers the Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres predictions and best MLB betting picks for Tuesday’s matchup at 9:40 p.m. ET.
This season did not start too hot for Aaron Civale. Through his first six outings, the Cleveland Guardians’ right-hander owned a 9.85 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and a .321 batting average against. Civale’s 4.78 xFIP indicated he was a little unlucky to be saddled with an ERA near 10, but it was nonetheless a worrisome start for a pitcher who enjoyed a breakout 2021.
But since that bumpy start, Civale has rounded into form. Over his last eight outings — which were interrupted by a stint on the IL — the 27-year-old has pitched to a 2.97 ERA and his 3.14 xFIP suggests that the improvement is legitimate and not smoke-and-mirrors.
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Guardians vs. Padres: MLB pick, prediction today
It’s been a different story for Mike Clevinger. The Padres starter has struggled in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and, unlike Civale, is trending in the wrong direction.
Over his last eight starts Clevinger has worked to a 4.17 ERA and his 5.04 xFIP suggests that things could be even worse for the 31-year-old. What’s most concerning is that Clevinger’s strikeout rate sits at just 21%, which is a career low and puts him in the 37th percentile league-wide.
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Although the Padres boast the stronger offense, Civale is the better starting pitching option and should give Cleveland a chance to pull the mini upset in San Diego on Tuesday night.
MLB pick today: Guardians +130 (FanDuel)